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USA / THE CARIBBEAN – Six weeks since war erupted in the Middle East, the shockwaves have spread to the Caribbean region, already pushed to the brink, amid fears of a looming El Niño-linked climate disaster.
Highlighting the import-heavy status of many Caribbean islands, UN researchers warned April 15, 2026 that the war – and in particular the Strait of Hormuz shipping and energy crisis – have triggered one of the most significant global trade shocks since the COVID19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Low-income households will be worst-hit, according to analysis partnered by the UN World Food Programme (WFP), after crude oil prices surged to more than $114 a barrel earlier this year, alongside increased shipping costs, insurance fees and delivery delays.
“Even with a fragile ceasefire now in place, volatility remains high – and the Caribbean, heavily reliant on imported food, is feeling the squeeze fast,” the report’s authors maintain.
At the same time, experts warn there’s a 61 percent chance of the El Niño climate phenomenon striking by mid-2026; historically for the Caribbean region, El Niño has brought heatwaves, drought and crop failures to already struggling nations.
The crisis in brief:
- Fuel shock hits food prices: Sky-high oil and shipping costs are driving up the price of imported food, electricity and transport, squeezing household budgets across the Caribbean.
- Heavy reliance on imports: The region depends heavily on food imports, making it especially vulnerable to global price spikes and supply chain chaos.
- Drought fears rising: the UN climate agency WMO says that there’s a 60 percent change of an El Niño weather event this year. A strong El Niño could bring severe dry spells to countries including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies.
- Food insecurity already high: Prices have jumped 55 to 60 percent since 2018, leaving many families struggling, with food insecurity still well above pre-pandemic levels.
- Back-to-back disasters: Recurrent climate disasters, including hurricane Beryl in 2024 and Hurricane Melissa last October, have left households with little ability to cope or resist new shocks. This means that even small price rises or crop losses could tip many households into crisis.
Warning signs
In Belize, authorities are preparing for drought, while farmers across the Caribbean region fear shrinking harvests as rainfall drops and temperatures climb.
For low-income families, the impact could be devastating, as food and transport make up a large chunk of spending. This means that even modest price increases will hit hard and force many to cut meals, or switch to cheaper, less nutritious food, or fall into debt.
Small farmers and fishers are also at risk, facing rising running costs alongside worsening weather conditions.
Experts say that the coming months will be critical. Without swift action to stabilise markets, support incomes and protect food production, the region could slide into a deeper crisis.
Even if global conditions improve, the damage may linger — leaving the Caribbean trapped in a cycle of rising prices, climate shocks and growing food insecurity.
Meanwhile, more than half of Haitians continue to face food crisis; 5.8 million Haitians, or roughly 52 percent of the population, are facing crisis levels of food insecurity, or worse. Of those, more than 1.8 million are dealing with emergency levels, which means they are exhausting their last assets and unable to meet even basic food needs.
The update came on Friday, in a release by the World Food Programme (WFP), which has been working with the government and partners to assist 2.7 million people in Haiti by providing emergency food assistance, school meals, social protection programmes, and assistance to smallholder farmers.
“These small improvements to food security numbers must not lead to complacency,” warned Wanja Kaaria, WFP Haiti country director. “Elevated fuel prices and the resulting rise in food costs risk rolling back these gains, pushing already vulnerable families deeper into crisis and further destabilising the situation.”
For almost a decade, Haiti has experienced an ever-deepening food security crisis, driven by violence related to armed groups, political upheaval, economic crisis and high levels of vulnerability to extreme weather, such as hurricane Melissa which struck the south in late 2025.
WFP is calling for robust measures and funding to provide emergency relief and invest in long-term solutions to address the food insecurity that affects more than one in two Haitians. “Tackling hunger is vital to restoring stability in Haiti,” said Kaaria. “We cannot build peace when families have nothing to feed their children.”
WFP requires $332 million to maintain its crucial operations over the next 12 months and, if enough funding is secured, plans to reach more than 2.7 million people with critical emergency and resilience-building support. The $880 million Humanitarian Response Plan for Haiti is just under 20 percent funded, with only $172 million received.
Violence and displacement spread across the country
Armed attacks earlier this week have displaced hundreds of people from the South-East department. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), violence on 13 April in the municipality of Marigot displaced more than 1,300 people.
IOM notes that this is the first time that displacement of this scale, directly linked to armed attacks, has been recorded in the South-East department, an area that has previously served as a reception zone for people displaced by violence elsewhere in the country. More than 165,000 men, women and children are currently hosted privately across the department.
Conflict has displaced more than 1.4 million in Haiti, resulting in roughly 300,000 people living in overcrowded and unhygienic temporary shelters in the capital, Port-au-Prince.
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