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Global oil prices take a bite in St Lucia’s 2026/27 budget forecast

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By Caribbean News Global

CASTRIES, St Lucia – The Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) July 28, 2026, press release advised that “government’s efforts to limit the cost of fuel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) have had a combined EC$44.9 million impact on the public finances since the start of the financial year on April 1, 2026. Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre stated that the government has collected EC$39.2 million less in fuel excise tax and spent EC$5.7 million subsidising cooking gas during the period.”

In economic terms, there is currently a combined negative impact on Saint Lucia’s 2026/27 budget forecast. Read St Lucia’s XCD 2.18 billion 2026/27 budget not designed to look good on paper, says OPM.

St Lucia’s XCD 2.18 billion 2026/27 budget not designed to look good on paper, says OPM

The OPM press release noted that “government cannot control international oil prices or the events which cause them to rise. It can, however, limit the effect on consumers through the taxes it collects and the subsidies it provides.”

“In keeping with the modified fuel price pass-through mechanism, the government of Saint Lucia has maintained the retail prices of fuel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) products for the period July 13 to August 2, 2026. Gasoline and diesel will remain at $16.75 per imperial gallon ($3.68 per litre)while kerosene will remain at $10.41 per imperial gallon ($2.29 per litre).

What does a combined negative impact on government revenue mean?

“Together, these measures have had an impact of $44.9 million on the public finances. “This is concerning, but we have taken these decisions to reduce the burden on the people of Saint Lucia,” Prime Minister Pierre said.

Saint Lucia outperformed its fiscal targets for the 2025/2026 financial year, posting a revised current surplus of $243.6 million, a recurrent surplus of $114.8 million, and a primary surplus of $90.1 million. However, the government of Saint Lucia has to attend more vigorously to cost control measures in an effort to regain financial ground and fiscal stability. Moreover, a concerted effort should be ongoing to revisit cost centres and allocations, and to mitigate deficit expenditure, says a regional economist.

Echoes on St Lucians

As noted previously, the government of Saint Lucia continues to face challenges in the collection of Value Added Tax (VAT) paid by consumers in trust to businesses, for onward remittance to the government.

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Saint Lucia continues to be ravaged by the downside of crime and lawlessness.” […] “US media advisory, and a troubling health care sector are major concerns, in addition to Saint Lucia continuing to stimulate Citizenship by Investment (CIP) – a dead donkey, following the UK visa ban, while the EU contemplates – what’s next: End CBI by June 2028 or risk Schengen access, EU instructs Caribbean Islands CIP/CBI.

The concerns?

The 2026/2027 budget seeks to undertake approximately 31 measures: The Government of Saint Lucia 2026-2027 budget undertakings.

“For this 2026-2027 budget, we will work towards strengthening our resilience, improving productivity and efficiency in the provision of government services, will achieve these based on three major pillars,” says Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre.

“One, reduce unnecessary expenditure and build efficiencies in government operations. Two, consolidate the gains that we have made in health care, public assistance, education, youth development and the economy.

“And as we build efficiencies, we’ll find the space to focus on medium- to long-term plans that will improve the economic well-being of our people.” ~ St Lucia budget 2026/27: Laying a strong foundation for sustainable economic growth and national development – Part 2.

Statistical surplus

“By collecting less tax on fuel and covering part of the cost of cooking gas, government helps to keep prices below what consumers would otherwise pay. In some cases, government covers [a] more than half of the actual cost of the 20-pound and 22-pound cooking-gas cylinders,” the OPM continued. “The pressure comes amid increases in international oil prices linked to the conflict involving Iran and uncertainty surrounding major oil-shipping routes. Despite the financial pressure, the government will keep fuel prices unchanged during the next pricing cycle.”

Prime Minister Pierre has also assured Saint Lucians that sound fiscal management will allow the government to continue delivering on the promises made in the 2026/2027 budget.

It is well established that Saint Lucia is very reliant on borrowing to finance its budgetary basic needs. The measure of ‘surplus’ and ‘excess liquidity’ makes for good revision.

Current government revenue reduction “from the excise tax on fuel and the cost of subsidising cooking gas” is not sustainable. It needs a policy and market-oriented re-work. Notwithstanding the financial impact, the government will keep fuel prices unchanged during the next pricing cycle scheduled for August 3, 2026.

“By maintaining these support measures, the government continues to shield households and businesses from the impact of volatility in international energy prices while helping to keep cooking gas affordable,” says the OPM.

Related: With the Hormuz Strait Set to Reopen, What’s Next for Oil Prices?

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