This post was originally published on this site.
-
- A new ECLAC document recommends leaving behind fragmented short-term responses and adopting policies that fit the new demographic reality facing the countries of the region.
SANTIAGO, Chile – Latin America and the Caribbean is facing an unprecedented demographic situation, with declining fertility, population ageing, the transformation of family structures and complex international migration all occurring against a backdrop of persistent inequalities and weakening social mobility and cohesion, associated with gaps in institutional quality and ineffective governance, according to a new report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
The document Impacts of Demographic Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Public Policy Challenges and Options, prepared by ECLAC and the United Nations Populations Fund (UNFPA), analyzes the social and economic impacts of demographic change on the region and is intended to provide input to improve countries’ public policies, in line with the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development and with a view to ensuring the full integration of population dynamics into sustainable development with equity and respect for human rights.
The report was presented by José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, executive secretary of ECLAC, and Simone Cecchini, chief of the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC, during the Sixth Session of the Regional Conference on Population and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, which will continue through August 20 in Montevideo, Uruguay.
The document emphasizes that demographic transition is redefining key conditions for development, planning and education, as well as for the sustainability of social protection, health and care systems.
“In regional context of unprecedented declines in fertility and population ageing, persistent inequality and weak social cohesion, efforts must be made to develop public policies that respond to the new demographic realities of Latin America and the Caribbean and can address the challenges involved in building more productive, inclusive and sustainable societies, leaving no one behind,” stated the executive secretary of ECLAC.
Among its most relevant findings, the report highlights the global fertility rate, which reached replacement level in 2015 and was 1.8 children per woman in 2024, meaning Latin America and the Caribbean had the third-lowest fertility rate in the world. However, its adolescent fertility rate (50 births per 1,000 women aged 15–19), reflects education gaps and socioeconomic and territorial inequalities that leave the population in a situation of greater poverty.
Population ageing represents the most radical change to the region’s demographic structure. By 2050, people aged 60 and over are expected to account for 25 percent of the total population (approximately 182 million people). A parallel process known as the “ageing of ageing” is also in effect, wherein the population aged 80 and over is experiencing even more accelerated growth than the rest of the age group. This, together with a preponderance of women and higher levels of dependency in this group, increases demand with regard to pensions, health, care and specialised support services.
The report indicates that declining fertility and increased longevity are associated with the closure of the window of opportunity presented by the demographic dividend. Regional average projections indicate that this dividend will conclude in 2028— the point at which the working-age population will stop growing faster than the dependent population. To compensate for this new age structure, the countries of the region will need to address the challenge of boosting women’s labor participation, substantially increasing labor productivity and fundamentally restructuring their own economic development to compensate for this new age structure.
Family structures have also been profoundly transformed, with average household size shrinking from 4.3 people to 3.3 people between 2000 and 2024. In addition, household types have diversified: the traditional two-parent model has lost relative weight, while single-person households have nearly doubled, and single-parent households (primarily headed by women) have increased considerably. Income level is a factor in this trend, given that small and single-person households are more prevalent in the richest quintiles.
The document also points out that urbanisation has become a consolidated trend (in 2026, the urban population reached 82 percent of the total) and international migration flows have increased in number and complexity. Although regional net migration is negative, intraregional migration has grown exponentially, driven primarily by flows of Venezuelan citizens. These migration flows have a critical demographic impact in destination countries with older age structures, as the arrival of young people can temporarily moderate population ageing and increase births.
According to the report, falling birth rates will likely reduce the school-age population by approximately 38.3 million people by 2050. This new demographic reality presents a historic opportunity to adopt a new education planning approach that redirects resources towards improving the quality and equity of education systems and teacher training. Equally, it is important to move towards lifelong learning models that include older persons.
“It is necessary to leave behind fragmented short-term responses and adopt public policies that fit the new demographic reality facing the countries of the region (…) The Montevideo Consensus offers a framework for progress in this direction, centered on human rights, gender equality, reproductive autonomy, the care society, social participation and the effective inclusion of historically excluded and discriminated groups and peoples,” the document concludes.
